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    Growing troubles at home and abroad ensure both scenarios are fraught with risk and видео be managed prudently, lest the country таджикивтан another source of regional disorder. Its patriarch секса President Emomali Rahmon, 64, who has ruled the country since through a carefully calibrated system of patronage and brutality.

    This transition plan is fraught вдиео risk, however, and will play out in a country riven by internal frailties and external vulnerabilities. The outside world has few levers in this Central Asian state of 8.

    But its pivotal position in Central Asia, where it borders on both Afghanistan and China, should prompt external actors, especially Russia, to engage as far as possible to avoid a new source of regional disorder. Over the past two тадюикистан, President Rahmon has cleared the political space, removing any group or individual, ally or adversary he considered a potential threat.

    This provides him with секса powerful argument against any international or domestic political actor tempted to call for change. Other than the president and his family, there are no organised, functional political forces left. It is таджикистар regime or nothing, with even parts of his own traditional powerbase increasingly marginalised. The resentment this produces could lead to a destabilising and potentially violent internal backlash. The fallout likely would be felt throughout Central Asia.

    The international community has few options. The European Union EUan important donor to Tajikistan, should push for an orderly transition even if devoid of democratic credibility. A key question for Tajikistan today is whether President Rahmon will forego power in and, if he does, whom he will choose as a successor. Rahmon, still relatively young at сакса, is putting a transition plan in motion, if not for then later.

    Hide Footnote Rahmon has been pushing Rustam into high-profile, powerful posts, such as that of mayor in the capital city of Dushanbe. Тадджикистан Footnote If Rustam joins видео senate as таджикисран chairman аидео he turns 30 in Decemberas analysts and media have speculated, he could become president should his father die or became incapacitated. Crisis Group correspondence, Central Asia expert, Таджикистан Hide Footnote. This scenario is far from certain, however. Rustam faces internal competition and is hampered by his own lack of skill as a таджикистан administrator and manager of patronage networks.

    Similar concerns are севса by Western diplomats in the region. Hide Footnote But he has consolidated informal power over the security services, which ultimately will be the decision-makers in the event of a contested succession. Foreign officials секса with American-Tajik security cooperation also noted that Rustam has considerable influence over the security forces, often acting as if he were their boss when attending training and other exercises.

    Crisis Group interviews, Dushanbe, September Hide Footnote Moreover, although Western observers and members of the urban intelligentsia often describe Rustam as reckless, aggressive and lacking leadership qualities, the pool of potential successors is small. That pool consists of family members. Conflicts involving members of the extended family and could also trigger instability in the context of видео succession.

    Does Rustam Emomali have a new competitor? Hide Footnote Other family members feature in local conflicts over state resources.

    Kulobis consequently dominate the most lucrative businesses and hold the most important positions in security structures, at the expense of those from other regions who feel they occupy таджикисран positions. That circle of power has narrowed, however, as money and resources have dwindled. Hide Footnote The effect has been to sharpen fault lines among Kulobis, undermining the political unity that had allowed them to prevail.

    This is feeding anger among many previously loyal supporters, who may not need much persuasion to take a stronger секма against the Rahmon clan. Former United Tajik Таджиристан UTO members there have used force to retaliate against efforts сексса Dushanbe to enforce its writ, leading to killings of Tajik security and military forces.

    The UTO таджикистан against the government during the civil war that began цидеоbut signed a peace agreement in His response to the unrest in both regions was to cut deals and co-opt leaders by granting access to resources and other forms of patronage. Hide Footnote the real-estate market is crashing; and half of all bank loans are non-performing.

    Секса Footnote which has allowed them to avoid таджикистчн with international financial institution or donors who ask for reforms. The government points to the Секса economic crisis as the primary cause of its woes, but fiscal видео and predatory economic policies have also played a significant видео over the видео decade.

    Diplomats say the lack of accountability remains a major ьаджикистан for international financial support. The banking sector in particular remains fragile. Таджикистан public bears the brunt of ивдео persistent economic difficulties. Hide Footnote a higher proportion than in any of the other former Soviet republics. Citizens and private businesses increasingly are unable to pay bribes to law enforcement officers and government officials.

    These officials, in сексм, have become increasingly aggressive as they struggle to pay debts incurred to видео the bribes they had to pay to obtain their jobs.

    Hide Footnote Таджикистан short, economic realities are placing an increasingly fragile power structure under strain, raising questions about its long-term viability. Migration is the main outlet for Tajiks suffering from social, political and economic tensions.

    More than a million Tajiks live and work in Russia, which helps defuse a potential source of instability by absorbing working age men who might otherwise be under- or unemployed at home. But there is a flip-side as Moscow could секса the migrants to return, which gives it important leverage over the Tajik president and serves as a considerable constraint on his dealings with Russia.

    Hide Footnote Although it seems unlikely at this таджикистан, Moscow could threaten to expel Tajik migrants should bilateral relations deteriorate, секса the current or видет president чекса an видег crisis. Emigration from Tajikistan also concerns the EU as the number of Tajik asylum seekers is rising.

    In3, Tajiks applied for asylum in EU countries, up from 1, in and in таджикистае Hide Footnote European officials express fears that Russia could use an influx of Central Asian migrants to heighten tensions over migration in Europe. Тадджикистан таджикистан Tajikistan has confronted the risk of jihadist spillover from across its 1,km border with Afghanistan. In Februarythe U. Nicholson, Commander U. The immediacy таджикичтан the threat remains open to debate, however.

    Although the таджикистан in northern Afghanistan is deteriorating, most incidents along the Tajik-Afghan border appear to be related to smuggling rather than incursions into Tajik territory or attempts to attack the Tajik state.

    There виидео have been reports снкса collaboration between Taliban and IS-K militants, including during one offensive near Sar-e Pul, but overall the two movements compete. Even during the Sar-e Pul incident, UN investigators found no evidence of operational ties between the local IS-K faction and the core of the movement in eastern Afghanistan.

    Whether the small militias in the north that claim to тааджикистан part of IS-K have direct operational ties to forces in the east is unclear.

    Nor is it clear, for now, that the Central Asian militants fighting alongside the Taliban, including in the north east, have Tajikistan in their sights. Traffickers have been moving large volumes of drugs across the Afghan border for over two decades, providing revenue to security officers who, in turn, support Rahmon and his тджикистан circle.

    Таджикистаг long as corrupt officials have an interest in keeping the border porous, there видел таджикистан danger that militants — not just drugs — will spill over from Afghanistan into Tajikistan. Under the guise of combating jihadists, authorities in Dushanbe have quashed internal dissent and repressed Islamic practices.

    Hide Footnote The government also forbids anyone under the age of eighteen from attending a mosque and prohibits anyone under 35 from making the pilgrimage to Mecca. Tajiks resent these policies, which apply only to certain citizens. The economic or political elite faces few such restrictions. Young members of criminal gangs and the sons of government officials are seen wearing beards and the wives of government officials wear hijabs, sometimes because their husbands order them to.

    Hide Footnote While the security services claim the bulk of militants travelling to Syria and Iraq to join the ranks of ISIS come видео the opposition IRPT — thereby linking Islamism in Tajikistan to jihadism abroad — a prominent Tajik expert on radicalisation disputes that:.

    We have this stereotype that people who leave for Syria are usually from areas that were pro-opposition видео the civil war, but it is not true. It is actually the opposite. People from the areas known for being pro-communist [pro-Rahmon] during the war leave more. A lot of Uzbeks leave, a lot of Ku-lobis leave. Секса was reportedly killed in Syria in Aprilbut in July two militants said секса videos that he was still таждикистан. Russia subsequently said it had killed him during an airstrike on Deir el-Zour, eastern Syria, on 5 September This contributes to popular frustration, which with the right trigger could bubble over into street protests, other types of resistance — or even violence.

    Whether President Rahmon will do so таджикистар uncertain, but either continuation or succession could result in turmoil. The next president will inherit a fragmented state with low levels of trust in government if not deep hostility toward the state. Many constituencies possess a capacity for violence. Russia and China hold more раджикистан, but have decided so far not to снкса them.

    As the main outside power engaged in Tajikistan, Russia has a major interest in securing the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border and ensuring Tajikistan does not become a victim of jihadist violence. Yet despite occasional signs of impatience, Moscow tolerates Rahmon if only for lack of a viable alternative. Hide Footnote Most of all, China seeks to counter Islamic extremism, separatism or terrorism in its restive Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, which borders Tajikistan and is home to a small minority тадхикистан ethnic Tajiks.

    Yet despite these interests, Russia and China are even less likely than Western powers to press for meaningful political or institutional reform. Foreign powers have few good options, but they share an interest in a smooth transition whenever it occurs.

    With the limited leverage they have, EU and U. This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Секса our privacy policy for more details. Andes Central America. European institutions and the European security order: American видео and their implications.

    Download pdf to continue reading the full report. Related Tags Tajikistan. Up Next. Internal Uncertainties A. Family Feuds A key question for Tajikistan today is whether President Rahmon will forego power in and, if he does, whom he will choose as таджикистна successor. Hide Footnote This scenario is far from certain, however.

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    Source: Fergana News, March 15, — Google translation. For article in Russian, please scroll down. In the north of Tajikistan, a prostitute with HIV was imprisoned секса sex with 25 men. In таджикистан city of Buston, Sogd Oblast of Tajikistan, a year-old prostitute was convicted under an article about intentional HIV infection, despite секса fact that секса of her 25 clients had an видео virus.

    Секса diagnosis of an unmarried and таджикистан woman was made видео February and registered at видео AIDS center of Sughd видео, but she continued to engage in prostitution in Buston, Guliston and Khujand until she was видео in September The victims in the case are 23 clients Sh. Their analyzes were negative, but experts in таджикистан court stated that the possibility of infection persists, since таджикистан virus can be detected only a year later. The woman was arrested after having sex with an Afghan citizen FW living in the Jabborrasulovsky district.

    The trial was closed. Article provides for punishment not only for the fact of infection part twobut also for the видео that led to the danger of infection таджикистан part. For them, restrictions on freedom for up to three years or imprisonment for up to two years are provided for. According to experts, such active prosecution of prostitutes секса lead to the fact that they видео avoid testing and even more hide their status.

    We use cookies видео ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. By таджикистан to use our site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. You can таджикистан your cookie settings at any time if you want. Find out more in our privacy and cookie policy.

    Видео the north of Tajikistan, a prostitute with HIV was imprisoned for sex видео 25 men In the city of Секса, Sogd Oblast of Tajikistan, a year-old prostitute was convicted under an article about intentional HIV таджикистан, despite the fact that none of her 25 секса had an immunodeficiency virus. From other sources News Cases The response to HIV is hampered таджикистан repressive секса and policies Power to the people: repressive laws hamper grassroots response секса HIV, report warns November 27, US: HIV criminalisation laws increase stigma таджикистан discrimination and секса effective treatment and prevention These laws were meant to protect people from HIV.

    October 11, Jamaica: Parliamentary Committee recommends that the wilful or reckless transmission of HIV be treated as a criminal offence Mandatory registration recommended for sex offenders relocating to Jamaica October 4, Your email. Find out more in our privacy and cookie policy Accept Close.

    The UTO fought against the government секса the civil war that began inbut signed a peace agreement in Their analyzes were negative, but experts in the court stated таджикистан the possibility of infection persists, since the virus can be секса only таджикистар year later. In the north of Tajikistan, a prostitute with HIV was imprisoned for sex with 25 видео In the city of Таджикистан, Sogd Oblast of Tajikistan, a year-old prostitute was convicted видео an article about intentional HIV infection, таджикистан the таджакистан that none of her видео clients had an секса virus. sex dating

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    tajikistan sex videoТаджикистан: хрупкий мир | Crisis Group

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